Casino Paradoxe

Paradox of The Natural Tendency

Not long ago I discussed with somebody who said nobody could be a winner over the long term and he made the computer simulation model that had proven this. Many of players know Random Walk, the Law of Large numbers, and the way the vig ties into this. Though, according to observations, I do not think laws of Large numbers can be counted in some visits or over an hour or so of play.

Several websites try to bring up a few points to show this. But, we have to know they are when we are sure what is better for us. However, as this law is, so is the “cluster principle” as well. We should remember we will have lucky streaks, unlucky streaks as well as choppiness over just an hour of play. We have to be ready for such events.

I had read several books, taken notes to my mistakes, I collected several rules I had to follow if I there was any chance of constantly bringing home just tiny profits in the game of roulette. I started following these rules and my game did start to make better. Below there are some rules that I collected. I called them ” PARADOX of THE NATURAL TENDENCY:

  • The best solution is to play 1:2 and/or even money bets (No big bets with any Green hedges) on a European wheel if it is possible
  • Never raise when you are losing.
  • When losing never panic. Panic can result in compulsive betting. Be patient. According to natural laws, 1 or 2 trends will start to take shape soon – don’t press till it happens. (Rule 5 can protect you in case it does not.)
  • Press when you’re on a winning streak! It’s your chance! Unluckily, it is perhaps the toughest thing to do.
  • Don’t be caught into continuum. Always try to take 10-15 minute breaks however, do not take breaks when you are on a winning streak. Before starting to play you should set winning and loss limits. Quit when it is time.

At the point I have stuck to the 1st – 3rd rules and I’m still fighting with rules 4 and 5.

I can think the majority do not think much of what I am saying they are just eager to win. Have you ever heard “I would not do this for all the money in the world”? That is what I have realized gambling is. It is difficult! Why? The reason is that adhering to the abovementioned rules are against people’s natural tendencies. Playing to win isn’t fun! They think there must be some system and they do not think that it is an energy-draining, gut-wrenching process which allows winning just a little money.

I am not a gambling expert and I am not an amateur either. But I think that 95% of the players couldn’t abide by the above mentioned rules including myself at times. The players press compulsively when losing (so did I earlier), are afraid of pressing when winning (sometimes I do this too but I’m reforming, especially once I have seen it does work!) and play without breaks which exposes them to paradox of the natural tendency again. Those players who press when winning have one more problem – GREED! But bear I mind, this all is natural. And I am sure just this encompasses the casino edge and not the Maths!
I base my conclusions on 3 things:

  1. Self-observations with regards to unavoidable development of trend
  2. The own self-evaluation of the mistakes committed  during play
  3. Information from many books, especially a book “Gamble to Win” by R. D. Ellison.

According to “Gamble to Win”, gambling is very hard work. I first read it when gambling was fun for me and it seemed not to be hard at all. However, the losses came then. It took me several years to understand that this was true and everything written Ellison’s book was accurate.

By following these rules I’ve seen some logicality with wins. It is difficult work. Overall, if you can see long run results, then begin to concentrate at the low profile rule – never boast about your wins when you know for certain what is better for you.